Which East African countries have the fastest to slowest expected economic growth in 2026?

The World Bank has forecast a positive economic outlook for East African countries in 2026, with the region’s growth expected to outpace the broader Sub-Saharan African average of 4.3%

East African block is poised to remain one of the continent’s most dynamic economic hubs in 2026. Economic growth projections show strong momentum across most member states. Leading the pack is Uganda, projected to surge ahead with growth of 9.8%, followed closely by Tanzania and RwandaThe forecasts, detailed in the January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report, highlight a region benefiting from robust domestic demand, public investment, and generally moderating inflation.

According to the latest World Bank forecasts released in January 2026, the region’s combined growth will be anchored by Uganda’s remarkable expansion and steady performances from Tanzania, Rwanda, and Kenya.

The projected growth is supported by factors such as continued infrastructure spending, recovery in agricultural outputs, and a resilient services sector, though the report cautions that downside risks from global trade fragmentation and climate shocks persist.

The World Bank’s 2026 GDP growth forecast for East African Community (EAC) members and neighbouring states reveals a clear ranking in the expected GDP % change in 2026.

The World Bank noted that South Sudan is projected for a high 48.8% growth in 2026, but this is a statistical rebound from a deep -23.8% contraction in 2025 and reflects extreme volatility post-conflict.

The region’s prospects are notably brighter than the Sub-Saharan African average growth forecast of 4.3% for 2026.

The World Bank reported that Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth picked up to an estimated 4.0% in 2025 and is projected to firm to 4.3% in 2026.

This recovery is supported by moderating inflation, but the institution warns that growth remains below the region’s long-term average and is insufficient to make substantial progress in reducing extreme poverty.

Four of the listed East African economies, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Ethiopia, are projected to grow above 7%, a threshold indicating very rapid economic expansion.

This outperformance is attributed to the region’s ongoing economic integration efforts, relative political stability improving investor confidence, and strategic positioning to benefit from continental trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

In other news, Kenya’s annual inflation rate softened slightly to 4.4% in January 2026 from 4.5% in December 2025.

The marginal easing was partly due to base effects from higher prices in the same period last year.

Food costs remained the primary driver, with the food and non-alcoholic beverages category rising 7.3% over the year, while transport and housing and utilities were also significant contributors, increasing by 4.8% and 2.2% respectively.

Month-on-month data for January showed sharp price increases for cabbage, fortified maize flour, and kale, while sugar, mangoes, and fuel prices declined.

Overall, the inflation rate remained within the government’s target band, providing a stable basis for monetary policy.

Credit: Elijah Ntongai, msn.com