As Nigerian voters prepare to head to the polls on February 25, many are hoping for a more market-friendly president to replace the current government, which has been perceived as having unfriendly policies towards markets and trade.
According to a survey conducted by Nairametrics, economists and market stakeholders have identified Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, Bola Tinubu, and Rabiu Kwankwaso as the top contenders in the upcoming presidential election, and have expressed their opinions on which candidate would be most market-friendly.
Our survey also indicates all the top contenders have good economic policies that favor markets but one person rises above others.
According to Moses Igbrude, President of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria,
Peter Obi the former chairman of the board of directors of Fidelity Bank and a stakeholder in International Breweries, has pledged to improve forex capacity by ending import restrictions and enabling exporters to sell their dollars at the market rate if elected.
Atiku Abubakar, who has investments in many companies in Nigeria but none listed on the stock market, has said that he would break the government monopoly in all sectors of the economy and allow the market greater leverage in determining prices.
However, Igbrude is not convinced that Abubakar’s policies would also be market-friendly.
Rabiu Kwankwaso has promised to initiate good economic policies and tackle insecurity, but Igbrude believes that he does not have sufficient knowledge of the workings of the exchange to formulate market-friendly policies.
Bola Tinubu has promised to optimize foreign exchange (FX) to strengthen the naira, which some economists believe would be market-friendly.
However, Mohammed expressed concern that Tinubu’s age might not work in his favor. Another economist, who preferred that we do not disclose his identity also expressed doubt that any of the four contenders would be completely market-friendly. Dr. Emeka Okengwu, Chief Executive of Anthill Concepts Limited, believes that Peter Obi would be the most market-friendly if elected, given his emphasis on moving away from consumption to production.
Okengwu believes that Atiku Abubakar could also have market-friendly policies, but may have shortcomings in terms of regulations. Dr. Paul Enonogie, an economist, believes that Peter Obi has an edge over the other contenders, given his academic background and association with the markets in the past. Anietie Dugu, a stock market analyst, expressed her confidence in Peter Obi, stating,
However, when asked about the other contenders, Dugu admitted she was not familiar with their economic policies while they were in government. Dr. Nelson Nkwo, a lecturer in the Insurance Department at Ebonyi State University, told Nairametrics, Livinus Azosiwe, another economist and social affairs analyst, stated, Azosiwe also noted that he perceives Bola Tinubu and Rabiu Kwankwaso to have socialist leanings, which is not market-friendly. Kayode Gbadebo, a player in the capital market, believes all four candidates know what to do to ensure market-friendly policies, but selfish interests have impeded the growth of the market. He said he hopes for a paradigm shift from what has been obtained over the past eight years.
According to the mini-survey conducted by Nairametrics, 67% of respondents believe Peter Obi will be market-friendly, with Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu clinching 11% apiece of stakeholders’ confidence to be market-friendly, while 11% remained neutral.
Regardless of the opinions, it remains to be seen which of the top contenders for Nigeria’s presidency will emerge victorious and deliver on their promise to implement policies that are more market-friendly than the current government’s policies.
As the country’s general elections draw closer, it is crucial for voters and stakeholders to consider the implications of each candidate’s economic policies and how they may impact the Nigerian market.
Credit: Nairamatics
