How Strong Is NATO Without the US? A Proven Assessment

NATO comes to terms without the US

The United States was a founding member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). NATO was established in 1949 to protect Europe against the Soviet Union. Today, 30 countries are members of NATO.

The military defensive alliance has been a key part of American foreign policy for decades. However, there are growing calls in the US for America withdraw from NATO. Some see it as too expensive and membership no longer being in America’s interest. But where would that leave the alliance? How strong would NATO be without the US?

NATO is a strong military force without the US. American military power accounts for about half of NATO’s strength. However, without the US, NATO is still one of the strongest military forces in the world.

…but that’s just an overview. To fully understand how powerful NATO would be if the US left, we need to look at the data.

How Powerful Would NATO Be If America Left?

In order to see if NATO would still be a powerful military force without America, we first need to assess how many troops, tanks, aircraft and warships NATO could bring to a war if America was not part of the alliance.

Without the US, NATO still has nearly two million active troops and over one million reservists. NATO also has over 8,000 tanks and 2,000 combat aircraft if America was not a member. Without the US, NATO has over 250 warships.

Below is a full breakdown of the data…

Country	Number of Active-Duty Soldiers	Number of Reservists	Number of Main Battle Tanks	Number of Combat Aircraft	Number of Warships
NATO With America	3,261,760	2,106,850	14,971	6,071	503
NATO Without America	1,873,660	1,261,900	8,762	2,310	269

All data from Wikipedia

As we can see, NATO would be significantly weaker if the United States was not a member. Overall, NATO would lose around half of its strength in troops, tanks, aircraft, and warships.

With that said, NATO would still be an enormously powerful military force, even without the US. It would be almost the strongest military force in the world with only a few countries being able to field more soldiers or military equipment.

Would NATO Win A War Without The US?

The next step in understanding NATO strength after a US withdrawal is to assess its capability.

It should evaluate whether it could win a war without America.

NATO would likely win a war even without forces from the United States. The combined forces of NATO, not including American troops, is still larger than almost any other countries military. There is almost no country that could defeat NATO in a war, even without the US.

If the US withdrew from NATO, it would still be among the world’s most powerful military forces.

It would still be able to deploy large numbers of troops, tanks, aircraft and warships, and retain advanced gear.

The alliance’s tactics and training are also world-class.

Without America, it is clear that NATO could still win a war against almost any country. Only some of the largest and most powerful army in the world, such as Russia or China, would pose a significant threat to NATO, even without US forces.

Could NATO Defeat Russia Without America?

NATO was established in 1949 to defend Europe against the Soviet Union. Today, the main aim of NATO is still to protect Europe from Russian aggression. However, if America was not part of NATO, could the alliance still win a war against Russia?

It is likely NATO could still defeat Russia in a war without the US. NATO has nearly twice the number of troops and four times the number of tanks not including American forces. NATO has twice as many combat aircraft than Russia without the US.

Right, now let’s look at the data. Below is a comparison of Russia’s military strength compared to NATO’s with and without US forces…

Country	Number of Active-Duty Soldiers	Number of Reservists	Number of Main Battle Tanks	Number of Combat Aircraft	Number of Warships
Russia	1,015.000	2,000,000	1,200	950	352
NATO With America	3,261,760	2,106,850	14,971	6,071	503
NATO Without America	1,873,660	1,261,900	8,762	2,310	269

As we can see, NATO without the US has over 800,000 more troops than Russia. It also has over 7,000 more tanks and 1,000 more combat aircraft. However, the Russian Navy would be larger than a NATO force if the US was not a member.

The fact that NATO could deploy significantly more troops and military hardware in a war against Russia, even if America was not a member, shows it could still win a war.

As well as being able to field more soldiers, tanks, and aircraft than Russia, it’s important to note that NATO equipment and training is among the best in the world. Even without the US, NATO would almost certainly win a war against Russia, as being able to deploy more soldiers and equipment, combined with better technology and training, would be decisive in a conflict.

Could NATO Win A War Against China Without the US?

Tensions between China and the West have grown in recent years. Although the Pacific region is mostly to see a war between China and America if one broke-out, it is not impossible that NATO could find itself in war with China. However, what if the US was not a NATO member? How effective could the alliance be without the United States?

It is unlikely that NATO could defeat China in a war without America. China has more active troops than NATO would have if US forces are not included. NATO without the US has around the same number of combat aircraft and warships as China.

Again, let’s look at the data. Below we’ve compiled a breakdown of China’s total military strength and compared it to NATO with and without the US as a member…

Country	Number of Active-Duty Soldiers	Number of Reservists	Number of Main Battle Tanks	Number of Combat Aircraft	Number of Warships
China	2,185,000	1,170,000	5,650	1,747+	355
NATO With America	3,261,760	2,106,850	14,971	6,071	503
NATO Without America	1,873,660	1,261,900	8,762	2,310	269

As we can see, NATO would have less soldiers than China is America wasn’t a member. However, NATO would still be able to deploy more main battle tanks than China if a war broke-out and the US was not part of NATO. The alliance would also still have more combat aircraft, meaning they could likely gain air superiority – vital to winning any modern war. The Chinese Navy would be larger than NATO’s sea power if the US withdrew from the alliance. Whether this would affect the outcome of a conflict is unclear.

It’s impossible to tell if NATO would win a war against China without the US. Both sides would have advantages. NATO has much advanced military technology, however China is fast modernising its armed forces. Overall, a NATO victory over China if America withdrew would be far from certain.

What Happens If The US Withdraws From NATO?

Finally, to assess how strong NATO would be if America were not part of the alliance, we need to think about what would happen if America pulled-out of NATO. How would NATO, and NATO adversaries, react if the US withdrew?

A US withdrawal from NATO would be a major shift in the global political order. However, NATO would likely continue as a military alliance of European nations and Canada. It is also likely America would re-join NATO at some point if it were to withdrawal.

An American pull-out of NATO would weaken the alliance. Other NATO members would be against the US leaving and an American departure would strain relations between the US and its allies.

Countries that are adversarial to the US and the West, such as Russia, China, and Iran, would welcome America leaving NATO. This is because it would both weaken NATO and the US. It would also show that America was retreating from its obligations to its allies and taking a more isolationist position. This would hugely benefit countries that were against the Western world order.

It’s important to state that it is very unlikely that America would leave NATO. As one of the founding members of the alliance, NATO has been a key element of US foreign police since the end of the Second World War. Although the administration of Donald Trump did make statements about leaving NATO, the US political establishment was never in favour of an American departure from the alliance.

Credit: Global Affairs